PlanetsCentral

Since we are already in turn 85, this information is quite useless :-) the current table reads:

Turn    Probability to reach this turn
86      0.825
87      0.66
88      0.5115
89      0.383625
90      0.278128125
91      0.194689688
92      0.131415539
93      0.0854201
94      0.053387563
95      0.032032538

Still a few turns to go it would seem.

Human brains are pretty easy to confuse by conditional or "ex-post" probabilities. In turn 80, the probability to reach turn 88 was 23%. Today, the probability to reach turn 88 is 51%. But if we reach turn 87, it will be 75%.

edit: WTF is up with this forums software, messing up (i.e. ignoring) line breaks and white space formatting?

This forum software only interprets double-newline as a paragraph break, and it produces a HTML "<p>". There isn't yet anything to produce a HTML "<br>" (which is what other forum software does with single-newline), but I'll probably add that.

I don't plan to add whitespace formatting, which is pointless with variable-width fonts (other than within a [code] tag of course). I believe this to be consistent with other software as well. At least, my habit of signing with "--Stefan" comes from forum software that strips whitespace :-)

--Stefan